COVI 19 projection for Lagos State
The analytics cover the period from 16th March when Lagos recorded its first case to 7th April.
Within the mentioned period, Lagos State recorded 130 cases of people that tested positive to covid-19. It means that within 23 days, Lagos recorded 130 cases.
In March, the growth rate of recorded cases was in double digits and touched 30s on few days. Last week, it came down to lower double digits, few zeros and one single digit.
Discharge rate climbed from 2% on 29th March to 26% on 7th April. This is good news.
It is interesting to note that the discharge rate is higher than new case growth rate. It means that people are recovering faster than the infection rate. This is very good.
NOW WE NEED TO READ CAREFULLY.
Lagos has attributed the good result to three key activities.
1. 50% of the result came from increased capacity for testing and taking care of patients.
2. When they created food bank and distributed to the needy, it took Lagos to 65%.
3. They enforced laws on social distancing and sit at home, and it took them to 80%.
Lagos is saying that there is a gap of 20% before they can get to 100%.
HOW DOES LAGOS WANT TO ACHIEVE 100%?
1. Keep current discharge rate at 25%.
2. Keep new case rate at 9%.
enforcement on social distancing and sit at home. They expect that this will take them to 95%, leaving 5% gap.
NOW THE PROJECTIONS.
1. This is the best case. Maintain 25% discharge rate and 10% new infections. Increase the lockdown days. By 18th April, 336 people will have the virus in Lagos. By 18th to 30th April, there will be no infection in Lagos and the death rate will be max 3%. That is 10 to 20 people will die.
2. Maintain 25% discharge rate and let the new cases be 20%. Going to 20% means relaxing the lockdown a bit and allowing contacts. It means that Lagos can exit covid-19 on 5th May, having handled 77,000 infections and 3,000 to 6,000 deaths.
3. This is worst case projection. 30% discharge rate and 30% new cases. Allow emotions and start going out now. By 16th May, there will be about 3,000,000 cases and 90,000 to 180,000 deaths. To complicate the issue, there will be no end in view.
THE CHANCES OF GETTING INFECTED.
1. 60% chance if family member is infected.
2. 35% chance if you travel or hang out.
3. 15% chance if in the office or with close friend.
In order to have early exit, Lagos may extend the lockdown to the end of April, and introduce tighter lockdown rules. Please get ready for the last huddle.